New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. She is currently the campaign manager for Curtis Bashaw’s U.S. Senate race. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
I suppose this will be a weekly question for the next two months: how did Bob Menendez fare in his corruption trial this week?
Dan Bryan: Once again for the record, I am not a lawyer. But I just cannot imagine a jury being swayed by Senator Menendez arguing that the many, many (alleged) bribes in his house were all from his wife, and that he had no knowledge of them. It takes some Olympic-level mental gymnastics to buy that.
Because of the damage this extreme right-wing Supreme Court majority has done to our country, it has become incredibly difficult to prosecute and convict politicians for corruption. So personally, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Senator Menendez Houdini his way out of yet another set of straightjacket and handcuffs. But given the clear and grave nature of the allegations against him, the court of public opinion has already granted their verdict. He will never again work in public life, or have another ounce of public trust.
Alex Wilkes: I would be interested to know the make-up of this jury because all I know – and I’m sure Dan knows too: no good has ever come from a man questioning the contents or organization of a woman’s closet.
Opening statements aside, I was curious back in the fall when this all happened if the interest would carry over to the spring, particularly with President Trump’s trials coinciding with this one. It appears, though, that the gold bars have proven to be an irresistible prop for both the prosecution and the media. It’s not even a partisan thing. It just exemplifies the corruption most people believe is true generally about politicians in Washington, D.C. It feels like something you would read in a comic!
We’ll see if the media keeps with it, but I suspect they will as more salacious details unfold.
On a much more serious note, I offer my sincere prayers for Nadine Menendez and a speedy recovery as she battles breast cancer. No one deserves that.
Ed Durr joined the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination this week. How does that affect the anticipated field of candidates, and what are his chances?
Alex: I think it somewhat shakes up both the ideological and geographical composition of the race. I don’t think it’s any secret that before Durr entered the race, you had candidates in pretty clear left, center, and right lanes of the race (not that they would label themselves that way, certainly). The conventional wisdom is that Durr might split more of the rightward, populist flank of the party, but even there, I think he has a pretty hard sell to both voters and donors. His past, crass comments on abortion were a noticeable drag on all of our legislative candidates last year, and I think most of us would very much like to leave 2023 behind.
Dan: Why not? Republicans are about to renominate the most corrupt, incompetent, and sinister President in American history. Why not nominate a failed, regressive legislator who is completely out of step with our state?
I hope New Jersey Republicans wake up and nominate a sane, rational candidate that can present a sincere plan for how to improve our state, whether or not I would ever agree with it. But those hopes grow dimmer and dimmer as Trump’s Republican party continues to circle the drain.
It seems that one of the most potentially consequential stories of the week was Donald Trump’s statement that Jack Ciattarelli would have won in 2021 if he had sought the former president’s endorsement, and his decision to praise Bill Spadea, who might wind up running against Ciattarelli for governor next year. So that brings a double question: (1) Is Trump right about Ciattarelli? — and (2) Was Trump telegraphing a preference in the 2025 governor’s race?
Dan: President Trump was among the least popular figures in New Jersey back in November of 2021. One could argue that the only reason Jack Ciattarelli came as close as he did, and that Republicans did so well nationally in that election, was because it coincided with a very brief period of the former President keeping his head down (relatively, of course) and staying out of the daily news cycle. So while there were a number of reasons Ciattarelli lost when Republicans elsewhere did so well, with a popular incumbent being reason #1, President Trump’s lack of support played no role.
I would be shocked if President Trump supported anyone other than Bill Spadea in the 2025 Gubernatorial primary. Spadea is an ill informed loudmouth, his racism veers from casual to overt, and he’d be an unmitigated disaster for our state – Trump must love him!
Alex: If you’re working in politics in 2024 and you don’t expect President Trump to in some way come in and upend – in either direction – your day, your week, your month, or even your year, you are probably working in the wrong business!
And when the dust – or sand – settles, if you find yourself facing the Trump headwinds, the only thing you can do is move forward. I think Jack did exactly that by showing up at the rally, joyfully greeting voters, and being a good sport. He recognized that that moment wasn’t about him, but rather about the people who waited in line, the grateful business owners who opened their doors to them, and, above all else, a whole lot of people who love their country.
At the end of the day, when you’re the candidate, and it’s the investment of your time and your money on the line, you simply have to run your own race and on your terms. No other way to do it!
The legislature passed a bill to amend New Jersey’s Open Public Records Act, with almost as many Republicans voting for it as Democrats voting against it. Whether Governor Murphy signs the bill or not, how much will this issue resonate with primary election voters in a possibly lineless 2025 – and is this a test of the political power of grassroots groups who opposed the OPRA bill?
Alex: I think the only thing that’s a game changer in a line-less New Jersey is if these grassroots, who are great at writing sternly-worded press releases but never quite bring themselves to primary anyone or fund opponents, actually show some teeth on more issues like this. Is OPRA access something that drives an ordinary voter to go to the polls? Probably not. Can groups make it something they should care about by funding some big spotlights on legislators who do things like defang ELEC and further erode the public’s trust? You bet.
Dan: One thing is certain – grassroots groups are having their voices heard in New Jersey more so than ever before. Anyone who takes that for granted may find themselves on the wrong side of history.
Whether this OPRA bill resonates with the public remains to be seen. But I have no doubt that it will energize groups that feel like their voices aren’t being heard in Trenton, and will push for change. That is something that everyone running for reelection in Trenton should pay attention to.
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